Top 5 Transportation Predictions in 2022
May 25, 2022
A continuation from IBTTA SmartBrief:
The early 2020s are becoming a junction point for the mobility world. New pricing models, micromobility, electric options and the entrenchment of smartphone technology are leading to the rise of a number of new improvements and options.
As the cofounder and chief product officer of smart mobility company Carma, I have a unique vantage point on how technology is changing mobility.
Here are a few of the biggest things I’m keeping an eye out for in the coming years:
Micromobility in urban cores
Micromobility services such as bicycle, scooter and e-bike programs will continue to thrive in downtown areas and other dense urban environments. During the past decade, a working model has evolved in cities and towns (including smaller municipalities and metropolitan areas alongside big global cities like London and Tokyo) where public bicycles and scooters are easily rented via smartphone apps through private companies partnering with local governments.
I expect to see both new programs being adopted and a steady return to ridership for programs which were disrupted by the pandemic. Cities will allocate even more space and priority for these modes as they strive for the “15-Minute City” model where most daily necessities can be taken care of within a quick walk or bike ride of resident’s homes.
The return of traffic
Traffic patterns worldwide have been strongly disrupted by the events of the past two years. Inrix’s 2021 global traffic scorecard found that traffic congestion significantly decreased in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and many other countries. Moreover, the nature of commutes changed with a double-digit decrease in trips to downtown cores noted worldwide.
One thing that hasn’t changed is relatively low carpooling and group ride adoption: Most commuters continue to drive alone.
My expectation is that traffic congestion levels will rise in 2022. While Inrix found that the average American driver lost 36 hours to traffic congestion in 2021, I believe that number may jump as high as 100 hours in 2022.
Car occupancy targets
More than 100 countries worldwide are either working towards meeting or proposing net zero goals for emissions. In the transportation world, one concept being adopted for net zero goals are specific targets for increasing average car occupancy.
The United Kingdom has adopted one of the most extensive net zero packages to date, which includes ending sales of new gasoline and diesel-based vehicles by 2030, massive infrastructure investment and subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles. This also includes moves towards encouraging the use of multi-passenger vehicles both through incentives and congestion fees.
I expect to see many more countries and local and regional governments adopting specific car occupancy targets.
Mobility-as-a-Service
Mass transit ridership worldwide is struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels. Many riders switched to driving in single-passenger vehicles during the pandemic and the traditional hub-and-spoke model of mass transit was disrupted by many urban core businesses either switching to remote work models or closing altogether.
As a result, many transit agencies and governments are finding the perfect opportunity to improve transit system functionality for the future. A major part of this is the adoption of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) smartphone apps and universal mobility wallets which let users pay for public transportation with a single credit card or smartphone tap.
Many of the more ambitious MaaS apps give users access to multiple forms of transportation at once with mass transit payment, rideshare booking, bike/scooter rentals and even car rentals integrated into the same product.
Per-Mile Fuel Pricing
The use of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles continues to increase worldwide. In the United States, 56% of car owners say they are “likely” to buy an EV or hybrid car for their next vehicle. As more car owners switch to electric vehicles, more governments are exploring per-mile pricing and other more flexible alternatives to traditional fuel taxes.
In the United Kingdom, several different options for road pricing are under evaluation. These range from a national road pricing system where drivers are charged per mile for vehicle use to flat fee per-minute pricing to geographic and time-based pricing where fees are flexible depending on location or time of day. The fees from these models would then be put towards road maintenance and other infrastructure projects.
In 2022 the Texas Department of Transportation will be spearheading the latest endeavor into the creation of an equitable RUC program with the potential for expansion and implementation nationwide. The forthcoming pilot is a collaborative effort in partnership with GoCarma, NCTCOG and Texas A&M Transportation, utilizing the GoCarma app to identify potential variables from driver data that can be implemented to create baseline fees for road use by both traditional and electric vehicles as an alternative to traditional fuel taxes. I expect that similar models to this will pop up in other countries and regions for a more equitable model compared to fixed per mile programs currently in place.